The hottest photovoltaic glass price rise demand s

The demand for photovoltaic glass price rise is turning upward

the price of photovoltaic glass increased by 4.6% month on month. Last week, the average price of 3.2mm coated photovoltaic glass was 27.5 yuan/m2, up 1.2 yuan/m2 from the previous average price, which is the first rise in the price of photovoltaic glass after 21 weeks of stability. This rise indicates the arrival of the photovoltaic peak season and the inflection point of supply and demand

first, the inflection point of short-term demand appears

the inflection point of short-term demand brings about the improvement of profitability of all links, making the accuracy and quality of workpiece processing more advanced. We expect 4q19 domestic installed capacity 21 5GW, an increase of 270%-300% month on month. At present, the domestic project bidding is intensive, and large-scale construction begins in the middle and early September. At the same time, the European summer holiday ends, and overseas demand will also start synchronously in September. In the fourth quarter, domestic and foreign demand resonates upward, with a significant increase in month on month. Due to the small supply elasticity, photovoltaic glass has taken the lead in raising prices, and the current price of perc battery has fallen below the cash cost of the old perc production line, The price may stop falling and rise. 8. Experimental speed::0.001~300mm/min (arbitrary adjustment), while the supply and demand of single crystal materials and single crystal silicon chips in 3Q are already tight, and the tension between supply and demand in 4q will intensify. It is required that the viscosity of hydraulic oil should be as small as possible with the change of temperature, and the profitability may be improved

II. Photovoltaic glass: parity opens the business cycle

1. Segment attribute: photovoltaic glass is an industrial standard, and yield, kiln scale, raw materials and fuel power cost control are the core competitive elements of the industry. At the same time, this link also has technical, approval, capital, certification and customer barriers, which are high, and the industrial technology iteration is relatively slow, so the industry will present an oligarchic competition pattern, In 2018, photovoltaic glass CR2 and Cr5 were 48% and 70% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 5pct. For these reasons, the gross profit margin of photovoltaic glass industry chain is relatively high, and the eaves height of 5.1 meters was completed in only 10 days

2. Double glass trend strengthens the demand inflection point: in addition to being affected by the demand inflection point of the photovoltaic industry, due to the gradual increase of the penetration rate of double glass, the demand for photovoltaic glass increases and strengthens the demand inflection point. We predict that the global demand for photovoltaic glass in 2019 will be 777million square meters, of which the demand increment caused by double glass is 62million square meters

3. There is no short-term supply increment, and the main production expansion will be released in the next year: the construction of photovoltaic glass is difficult, and the average production expansion cycle is 18 months. Due to the existence of the production expansion cycle, the short-term supply of the industry is difficult to increase. At present, the expansion of leading enterprises is steadily advancing, and the double leading enterprises plan to expand the production of 8 photovoltaic glass production lines, which are expected to be put into operation successively from 2020

4. Parity started the boom cycle, and the industry grew steadily. Due to the decline in the price of the industrial chain and the expansion of overseas parity regions, we expect the global photovoltaic demand CAGR to be 16.2% in, and the overall supply and demand of the industry is upward. In the process, there may be profit distribution in all links due to the difference in supply and demand pattern